Is The Bull Season Over?

Bitcoin has dumped by 24% from its peak of $74,000, with many altcoins also experiencing drops exceeding 70% from their highs. Has the bullish season concluded? What steps ought to be considered?

To address these inquiries, we will delve into historical data to assess recent developments impacting Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

There are basically three seasons in crypto.

1. The Bull Season when everything is going up.
2. The Bear Season when everything is going down.
3. The Consolidation Season when it is going sideways.

The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 26, 2012. Following the halving, a rally occurred four months later, with the major bull season starting about eleven months later, followed by a bear and consolidation season.

The next Bitcoin halving occurred on July 11, 2016. Roughly six months later, the bull market began and surged to its peak. However, in 2018, it all plummeted, leading to a consolidation phase.

Another halving happened on May 25, 2020. Approximately five months later, the bullish trend commenced, reaching a peak before decreasing in 2022, followed by a consolidation phase.

Based on historical trends, we anticipate the upcoming rally in July or October.

Following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, a significant rally occurred, surpassing the previous all-time high (ATH) and marking a pivotal moment. However, in the last three weeks, the market has experienced a downturn, with major assets dumping double digits.

The market is bleeding because:

1. Interest rate cuts are postponed until later this year, causing a decline in traditional assets. Now, Bitcoin can be categorized as one of them, thanks to the Bitcoin ETF.

2. Institutions profit from BTC ETFs without owning BTC, leading to significant ETF inflows with minimal impact on spot prices.

3. Last week, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of over $500 million. 

4. Long-term holders are selling after a decade of holding.

5. Retail investors have not returned as a result, new money is not flowing into the market.

6. Numerous new coins enter the market daily, causing fragmentation as individuals seek the next big trend such as WIF tokens and POPCAT. Consequently, the funds intended for a few assets to pump their value become diluted.

For example, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $53,000 a few days ago, this was as a result of Mangos. 50,000 Bitcoin worth $2.7  Billion dollars from the Mango’s hack was moved to be distributed to the affected victims and this made the price dumped.

To answer the question, the bull season is not yet over, but the market must retrace for a healthy bull run. So, if Bitcoin falls back to $53,000 to $47,000 or lower, it could extend the bull season and possibly continue until 2025. A retreat means slower but higher movement, so safeguard your portfolio.

Disclaimer: All these are for your education and not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment moves.